July 2025: markets immune to trade tensions

July 2025: markets immune to trade tensions

07 August 2025 | 2 min. readingtime

Marketupdate Juli ENG

Recap of July

July promised to be an exciting month for financial markets, but in the end they seemed largely unaffected by the ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions. Share prices rose and capital market interest rates edged up slightly. Towards the end of the month, however, uncertainty increased in the run-up to the August 1 deadline imposed by US President Trump for trade deals.

The best performing stock market last month was the US, closely followed by emerging markets, with monthly returns of 4.7% for the MSCI North America index and 4.5% for the MSCI Emerging Markets index. In the US, the S&P 500 index rose to a new record level above 6400 points towards the end of July, although this important benchmark was ultimately unable to maintain this level. The price gains in the US were mainly driven by technology stocks, while for investors in euros, the rise in the US dollar against the euro made an additional contribution to the return on US equities. Incidentally, the US dollar is still around 10% lower against the euro than at the beginning of this year, which is also the main explanation for the difference in returns between US and European equities since the beginning of 2025: also around 10%, in favor of European equities.

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Iwan Peters

Senior investment strategist

As an investment strategist, Iwan focuses on financial market analysis from a macroeconomic perspective, tactical asset allocation and economic scenario analysis.

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