About ‘blue sweeps’ and ‘red mirages’

Last summer, we looked ahead to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. With just a few days to go until 3 November, we take stock again. What has changed since then, and how are prospects now in our view?

Our basic scenario: ‘a blue sweep’

When we looked ahead to the upcoming US presidential elections earlier this year, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden was well ahead in the polls. Now, three months later and with only a few days to go until election day, this picture has actually changed very little overall. There has been no real ‘October surprise’, and what could be construed as such (e.g. the first presidential debate, which had more in common with an extreme assertiveness training, or President Trump’s COVID-19 infection following almost immediately afterwards) seems to have played out to the incumbent president’s disadvantage, rather than to his advantage. What has changed, however, is that in addition to the pollsters, the gambling markets are now also betting on a victory for Joe Biden. At the beginning of September, both candidates were still given almost equal odds of victory, but now the odds are much more in favour of the Democratic candidate (approx. 2/3 to 1/3).

Click the link below to read the entire article (in Dutch, pdf).